Ross Garnaut

Ross Garnaut is a Distinguished Professor at the Crawford School of Economics & Government, Australian National University College of Asia & the Pacific. Ross Garnaut’s research interests include China’s economic reforms and internationalisation; Asia-Pacific economies’ development and international economic relations; Australia’s economic relations with the Asia-Pacific region; domestic economic adjustment to Asia-Pacific economic development.

China’s 40 Years of Reform and Development: 1978–2018 »

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Ligang Song, Cai Fang
The year 2018 marks 40 years of reform and development in China (1978–2018). This commemorative book assembles some of the world’s most prominent scholars on the Chinese economy to reflect on what has been achieved as a result of the economic reform programs, and to draw out the key lessons that have been learned by the model of growth and development in China over the preceding four decades. This book explores what has happened in the transformation of the Chinese economy in the past 40 years for China itself, as well as for the rest of the world, and discusses the implications of what will happen next in the context of China’s new reform agenda. Focusing on the long-term development strategy amid various old and new challenges that face the economy, this book sets the scene for what the world can expect in China’s fifth decade of reform and development. A key feature of this book is its comprehensive coverage of the key issues involved in China’s economic reform and development. Included are discussions of China’s 40 years of reform and development in a global perspective; the political economy of economic transformation; the progress of marketisation and changes in market-compatible institutions; the reform program for state-owned enterprises; the financial sector and fiscal system reform, and its foreign exchange system reform; the progress and challenges in economic rebalancing; and the continuing process of China’s global integration. This book further documents and analyses the development experiences including China’s large scale of migration and urbanisation, the demographic structural changes, the private sector development, income distribution, land reform and regional development, agricultural development, and energy and climate change policies.

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 1 (Chinese version) »


Edited by: 宋 立刚, Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉, Lauren Johnston
本书针对近年来中国经济增速的下滑,从供给侧角度出发,探讨中国如何启动经 济增长的新源泉,论证了通过改革进一步提高劳动生产率的重要性。全书分为两个部 分,第一部分为“改革与宏观经济发展”,主要内容包括宏观经济的展望、新经济增 长模式、新型城镇化、互联网金融的发展、供给侧结构性改革、中国的全球投资、农 民工的储蓄与消费行为、证券市场的泡沫检验、企业层面的杠杆率与去杠杆进程等;第二部分为“资源、能源、环境与气候变化”,主要内容包括中国低碳城市发展、能 源政策的变化、钢铁产业重组、工业用水和能耗趋势、水资源和森林资源的保护、电 力行业与环境保护的关系以及中国气候环境战略面临的挑战等。 Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press English version

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 2 »

Human Capital, Innovation and Technological Change

Edited by: Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Lauren Johnston
China’s efforts in searching for new sources of growth are increasingly pressing given the persistence of the growth slowdown in recent years. This year’s book elucidates key present macroeconomic challenges facing China’s economy in 2017, and the impacts and readiness of human capital, innovation and technological change in affecting the development of China’s economy. The book explores the development of human capital as the foundations of China’s push into more advanced growth frontiers. It also explores the progress of productivity improvement in becoming the primary mechanism by which China can sustain economic growth, and explains the importance of China’s human capital investments to success on this front. The book demonstrates that technical change is a major contributor to productivity growth; and that invention and innovation are increasingly driving technical change but so far lumpily across regions, sectors and invention motivations. Included are chapters providing an update on reform and macroeconomic development, educational inequality, the role of intangibles in determining China’s economic growth, and China’s progress in transitioning towards being an innovative country. The book also covers the regional dimension of innovation and technological progress by sector: in agricultural productivity, renewable energy and financial markets. Chapters on trade, investment, regional cooperation and foreign aid explore further the mechanisms through which technological change and innovative activities are emerging locally and internationally.

China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context (Chinese version) »


Edited by: 宋 立刚, Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉, Lauren Johnston
中国经济正经历着自改革开放以来最持久深入的增长转型期。本书 主题是“中国经济转型”,主要关注以下问题:一是全球经济增长的背景; 二是中国的货币政策与外汇政策改革及资本项目开放;三是中国的能源 与电力改革与政策调整;四是中国的对外投资以及贸易政策的实施。在“新 常态”的增长速度下,中国的经济发展是否能够如预期为中国走上世界 生产力前沿奠定基础?在结构调整和低速增长并存的情况下,未来经济 发展面临什么新的问题?通过本书的分析阐释,也许能够为读者找到解 答这些问题的线索。 Chinese print version of this book is available from Social Science and Academic Press English version

China's New Sources of Economic Growth: Vol. 1 »

Reform, Resources and Climate Change

Edited by: Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Lauren Johnston
China’s change to a new model of growth, now called the ‘new normal’, was always going to be hard. Events over the past year show how hard it is. The attempts to moderate the extremes of high investment and low consumption, the correction of overcapacity in the heavy industries that were the mainstays of the old model of growth, the hauling in of the immense debt hangover from the fiscal and monetary expansion that pulled China out of the Great Crash of 2008 would all have been hard at any time. They are harder when changes in economic policy and structure coincide with stagnation in global trade and rising protectionist sentiment in developed countries, extraordinarily rapid demographic change and recognition of the urgency of easing the environmental damage from the old model. China’s economy has slowed and there are worries that the authorities will not be able to contain the slowdown within preferred limits. This year’s Update explores the challenge of the slowdown in growth and the change in economic structure. Leading experts on China’s economy and environment review change within China’s new model of growth, and its interaction with ageing, environmental pressure, new patterns of urbanisation, and debt problems at different levels of government. It illuminates some new developments in China’s economy, including the transformational potential of internet banking, and the dynamics of financial market instability. China’s economic development since 1978 is full of exciting change, and this year’s China Update is again the way to know it as it is happening

China's Domestic Transformation in a Global Context »

Edited by: Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Lauren Johnston
The phrase ‘New Normal’ captures the ongoing shift in the pattern and drivers of China’s economic growth. China’s new growth rate is both slower and imposing difficult structural change. These new economic conditions are challenging yet offer opportunities for China and its economic partners. Reforms must be deepened but also make growth more inclusive and environmentally sustainable, over this decade and beyond. This year’s Update offers both global context and domestic insight into this challenging new phase of China’s domestic economic transformation. How are policymakers elevating migrant workers concurrent with increasing consumption? Is China’s government spending enough on education and R&D to ensure it can achieve its aspirations to ascend the global manufacturing value chain and avoid the middle-income trap? Are energy market reforms reducing or increasing the price of gas and electricity in China? What are the consequences of China’s financial reforms and expanding Renminbi trading for foreign banks? What does China’s new growth model mean for the international resources economy and for Africa? Do SOEs face market conditions and are they dominating China’s fast-rising outbound investment? What is China’s strategy for navigating fragmented international trade policy negotiations?

Deepening Reform for China's Long-term Growth and Development »

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Ligang Song
The Chinese economy has entered a new phase of development in which sources of growth are not so much dependent upon pure increases in labour, investment and credit expansion, but from productivity improvement, structural changes, technological progress and the benefits from improvement of the social security and welfare improvement. When market functions are fully established to become a main channel for allocating resources, the entrepreneurship will flourish engaging in more innovative activities, workers will move more freely and have more incentives to improve their skills, firms will become more productive through market entry and exit, the economic structure will become more balanced because of the improved resource allocation, and in the end, growth will become more spontaneous and sustainable. In this sense, reforms could deliver ‘dividend’ by raising China’s potential economic growth rates. For China to confront all the challenges it faces at present, the reforms undertaken now have to be deep, comprehensive and far-reaching in order to succeed in paving the way for China to complete the task of transformation in the long-term. There is no better alternative than deepening the market-oriented reform in advancing the course of China’s modernisation for future development and prosperity and lifting China to the status of a developed economy in the next two decades. The recent China update books have covered the topic of reform from different angles and this new book is another attempt to address this important issue.

China: A New Model for Growth and Development »

Edited by: Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang, Ligang Song
The Chinese economy is undergoing profound change in policy and structure. The change is necessary to increase the value of growth to the Chinese community, and to sustain growth into the future. The changes are so comprehensive and profound that they represent a new model of Chinese economic growth. This book describes the replacement of an old uninhibited investment expansion model of growth, by transition to modern economic growth and provides insights into recent changes and where they are likely to lead. These include requirements for building the new institutions including its public finances for future growth, adjustments in its savings, industry and agriculture, changes in its demographic structure, business environment, and pattern of rural-urban migration, prospects for ‘green growth’, its energy policy trilemma and the climate change mitigation strategy, and changes for China’s interaction with the international economy through its overseas investment and trade in high tech products. China’s adoption of a new model of economic growth is of immense importance to people in China and everywhere. This book is an early attempt to take a close look at many of the features of the new model.

China: A New Model for Growth and Development (Chinese version) »

中国长期增长与发展的新战略: 责任与启示

Authored by: Ross Garnaut, 蔡 昉 宋立刚
中国经济正经历着政策和结构方面的深刻变革. 这种变革对于提高中国 社会的增长绩效、 保持未来中国经济的发展潜力都很有必要. 成功的经济发展改变了中国传统的增长模式, 也给经济发展带来了压力, 而这种压力正是变革的内驱力之一. 近年来, 劳动力短缺及真实工资迅速上涨给中国经济的传统模式带来了巨大挑战, 使得资源和收入分配、自然环境、经济增长率、储蓄率、 投资率与国际资本流动等都有所变化. 原有的增长模式在过去取得了巨大的成功, 也引发了上文所述的种种变化, 而国家政策层面上的改革亦会改善现状, 使中国的收人分配体系更加公平, 国内环境和国际环境更加有利于中国经济的发展. Chinese version of this book is available from this Social Science and Academic Press.

China 2002 »

WTO entry and world recession

In 2002 China enters the WTO. Long awaited by the world’s trading economies, it now comes in a year of global recession. What effect will China’s entry into the WTO have at a difficult time? The rapid expansion of China’s trade has required large adjustment in its trading partners, and the expansion and adjustment will accelerate with WTO entry. The internal adjustment pressures in China from WTO entry are also immense. Recently dubbed Australia’s Ambassador to the region by Rowan Callick of the Financial Review, Ross Garnaut was Australia’s ambassador to China through an earlier exciting period when China took its first major steps towards opening to international trade and investment. He was instrumental in the development of China’s thinking about the WTO. Ross Garnaut is Chairman of the China Economy and Business Program at The Australian National University. Australian members of the Program and their associates gather each year for the China Update. Ligang Song is leading authority on the internationalisation of the Chinese economy and on the development of the private sector in China. He has worked at Peking University and People’s University in Beijing and at the International University in Tokyo. This work, originally published by Asia Pacific Press, is reproduced here in the interests of maintaining open access to high-quality academic works no longer in print.